The Shaping Window Intelligence Index

A methodology-governed, release-cycle index measuring federal public-capital formation across procurement, grants, policy, and research.

Published as a public reference index, in the tradition of S&P DJI, FRED, and MSCI methodologies. Methodology v2.0. Free to read. Free to cite.

Current Index Values (Release 7, Q3 FY2026)

• SWI (Shaping Window Index): 0.32 — BEAR. Cross-vertical composite showing broad contraction.
• FPII-HI (Federal Procurement): 0.68 — EXPANDING. Procurement momentum rising, recompete activity strong.
• FLII-HI (Federal Policy): 0.44 — DORMANT. Low policy activity, early signs of re-engagement.
• FGII-HI (Federal Grants): 0.44 — CONTRACTING. Grant supply declining, IIJA/IRA disbursement phase.
• FRII-HI (Federal Research): 0.02 — COOLING. Near-zero new research awards from NIH/NSF/DARPA.

Four vertical indices — FPII, FLII, FGII, FRII — beneath one cross-vertical index, the SWI.